Support rate for the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria

As the US, the European and Turkish governments and media intentionally quote the role the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab spring, ordinary people may want to know how much the MB is actually supported in Syria.

Of course, there aren't any official statistics. But there is a way we can guess.

Several general elections were held in Jordan, Palestine and Egypt in 1990s, and the outcomes for the MB were the same in these 3 countries. The fixed MB supporters were 10% of the total population. The support rate may jump to 20% at maximum if the people's demands (complaint to the government) matches the MB's policy.

This shows an interesting fact that the vast majority of people in Islamic countries do not like those who emphasize the religion. Voters refrain from attacking religion explicitly but they won't vote for religious candidates. There is also a tribal aspect for the low support rate. Voters look at the candidate and if he is from a rival tribe, they won't cast their votes for him.

The CIA factbook estimates that the Sunni population in Syria is 74%, so the fixed MB supporters should be 7.4% of the total population. The Syrian MB may attract upto 15% of the population only when ordinary people's demands fit the MB's policy.

The Syrian Christian population is 8% according to Father Luqa al-Khouri (cache), a bishop in Damascus. Estimate for Christians vary, but churches count the number of believers precisely. So when they say 8%, it is 8%.

Then the size of the Syrian MB is as small as Christians, and slightly smaller than Christians!

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This is one of the reasons why the western plot to topple the Syrian government has half-failed so far. They relied on Turkey and Saudi Arabia whose influence over Syria is actually minimal.

This reminds me of a miserable Israeli failure in its invasion into Lebanon in 1982. They relied on the Maronites only and failed.

Furthermore, what the oppositions, especially exiled Syrians, are doing is really anti-business. Therefore the area of protests has not widened since the beginning. The Syrian government has succeeded in containing the protests, and the demonstrations are apparently losing steam these days.

The media description of al-Baath regime that they are a minority government for al-Assad family is also wrong. Yes, al-Assad family is located in the center, but that' not all. They have formed a majority by making alliances with various forces. al-Baath is a Syrian product. They are not an alien "installed" by a foreign power. It has its roots in the Syrian society. al-Baath is strong because they have passed fierce political struggles.

On the other hand, most of oppositions' councils being set up on weekly basis are foreign-installed. They are weak because they haven't experienced any political struggle.